timtyler comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 07 May 2010 02:34PM

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Comment author: thomblake 07 May 2010 08:28:01PM 1 point [-]

By "awakened" here you mean "awakened at all". I think you've shown already that the probability that heads was flipped given that she was awakened at all is 1/2, since in both cases she's awakened at all and the probability of heads is 1/2. I think your dispute is with people who don't think "I was awakened at all" is all that Beauty knows when she wakes up.

Comment author: timtyler 10 May 2010 06:43:15AM 1 point [-]

Beauty also knows how many times she it likely to have been woken up when the coin lands heads - and the same for tails. She knew that from the start of the experiment.