LucasSloan comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 07 May 2010 02:34PM

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Comment author: LucasSloan 07 May 2010 09:17:10PM 0 points [-]

In the situation you state, then yes, of course I place high probability on the coin having come up tails. However, in order for your situation to be truly analogous to the Sleeping Beauty problem, you would have to be guaranteed to get the phone call either way, which destroys any information you gain in your version.