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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong
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'Credence' is not probability.
It means: "subjective probabilty":
"In probability theory, credence means a subjective estimate of probability, as in Bayesian probability."
An estimate of a thing is not the same thing as that thing. And Bayesian probability is probability, not an estimate of probability.
Or - to put it another way - for a Bayesian their estimated probability is the same as their subjective probability.
The concept of "estimated probability" doesn't make sense (in the way you use it).
? You can certainly estimate a probability - just like Wikipedia says.
Say you have a coin. You might estimate the probabiltiy of it coming down heads after a good flip on a flat horizontal surface as being 0.5. If you had more knowledge about the coin, you might then revise your estimate to be 0.497. You can consider your subjective probability to be an estimate of the probability that an expert might use.
You don't seem to understand the concept of Bayesian probability. Subjective probability is not estimation of "real probability", there is no "real probability". When you revise subjective probability, it's not because you found out how to approximate "real probability" better, it's because you are following the logic of subjective probability.
Really? Someone who's been posting around these parts for years, and your best hypothesis is "doesn't understand Bayesian probability"? How would you rank it compared to "Someone hijacked your Lw account" or "I'm not understanding you" or "You said something that would have made sense except for a fairly improbable typo"?
This seems a reasonable hypothesis specifically because it's Tim Tyler. It would be much less probable for most other old-timers (another salient exception that comes to mind is Phil Goetz, though I don't remember what he understands about probability in particular).
You seem to have to misattribute the phrase "real probability" to me in order to make this claim. What I actually said was "the probability that an expert might use".
I recommend you exercise caution with those quote marks when attributing silly positions to me: some people might be misled into thinking you were actually quoting me - rather than attacking some nonsense of your own creation.