HughRistik comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 07 May 2010 02:34PM

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Comment author: HughRistik 07 May 2010 09:40:59PM *  1 point [-]

This was similar to my intuition also. She will wake up in the end no matter what regardless of how many times she has been woken up before, so how does her wakefulness add any new information? If there was a scenario where she would never wake up, then her being awake would actually mean something, but that isn't the question.

I can't see how this a problem of conditional probability. Isn't it just "what is P(heads)"? Am I missing something?