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Roko comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong
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It's hard to make a sensible notion of probability out of "fraction of waking moments". Two subsequent states of a given dynamical system make for poor distinct elements of a sample space: when we've observed that the first moment of a given dynamical trajectory is not the second, what are we going to do when we encounter the second one? It's already ruled "impossible"! Thus, Monday and Tuesday under the same circumstances shouldn't be modeled as two different elements of a sample space.
The winning thing might be better than the probability thing, but it won't be a probability thing just because it's winning. Also, UDT weakly relies on the same framework of expected utility and probability spaces, defined exactly as I discuss them in the comments to this post.