byrnema comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong
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Given that Beauty is being asked the question, the probability that heads had come up is 1/3. This doesn't mean the probability of heads itself is 1/3. So I think this is a confusion about what the question is asking. Is the question asking what is the probability of heads, or what is the probability of heads given an awakening?
Bayes theorem:
Where is the probability of heads? Actually we already assumed in the calculation above that p(heads) = 0.5. For a general biased coin, the calculation is slightly more complex:
I'm leaving this comment because I think the equations help explain how the probability-of-heads and the probability-of-heads-given-awakening are inter-related but, obviously -- I know you know this already -- not the same thing.
Why was this comment down-voted so low? (I rarely ask, but this time I can't guess.) Is it too basic math? If people are going to argue whether 1/3 or 1/2, I think it is useful to know their debating about two different probabilities: the probability of heads or the probability of heads given an awakening.