byrnema comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 07 May 2010 02:34PM

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Comment author: byrnema 07 May 2010 07:37:32PM *  -2 points [-]

Given that Beauty is being asked the question, the probability that heads had come up is 1/3. This doesn't mean the probability of heads itself is 1/3. So I think this is a confusion about what the question is asking. Is the question asking what is the probability of heads, or what is the probability of heads given an awakening?

Bayes theorem:

  • x = # of times awakened after heads
  • y = # of times awakened after tails
  • p(heads/awakened) = n(heads and awakened) / n(awakened) = x / (x+y)
  • Yields 1/3 when x=1 and y=2.

Where is the probability of heads? Actually we already assumed in the calculation above that p(heads) = 0.5. For a general biased coin, the calculation is slightly more complex:

  • p(H) =probability of heads
  • p(T) = probability of tails
  • x = # of times awakened after heads
  • y = # of times awakened after tails
  • p(heads/awakened) = n(heads and awakened) / n(awakened) = p(H)x / (p(H)x + p(T)y)
  • Yields 1/3 when x=1 and y=2 and p(H)=p(T)=0.5.

I'm leaving this comment because I think the equations help explain how the probability-of-heads and the probability-of-heads-given-awakening are inter-related but, obviously -- I know you know this already -- not the same thing.

Comment author: byrnema 08 May 2010 01:13:32PM 1 point [-]

Why was this comment down-voted so low? (I rarely ask, but this time I can't guess.) Is it too basic math? If people are going to argue whether 1/3 or 1/2, I think it is useful to know their debating about two different probabilities: the probability of heads or the probability of heads given an awakening.