"ADDED: This is depressing. Here we have a collection of people who have studied probability problems and anthropic reasoning and all the relevant issues for years. And we have a question that is, on the scale of questions in the project of preparing for AGI, a small, simple one. It isn't a tricky semantic or philosophical issue; it actually has an answer. And the LW community is doing worse than random at it."

That's why I posted this to begin with. It is interesting that we can't come to an agreement on the solution to this problem, even though it involves very straightforward probability. Heck, I got heavily down voted after making statements that were correct. People are getting thrown off by doing the wrong kind of frequency counting.

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However, I should note that the event 'sleeping beauty is awake' is equivalent to 'sleeping beauty has been woken up at least once' because of the amnesia. The forgetfulness aspect of the problem is why the solution is 1/2.