And that's a good argument you've got there, but I don't think that is totally obvious on the first read of the problem. It's a weird feature of a probability problem for the relevant wager to be offered once under some circumstances and twice under others. So people get confused. It is a little tricky. But, far from confusing things, that entire issue can be avoided if we specify exactly how the payoff works when we state the problem! So I don't know why you're freaking out about Less Wrong's ability to answer these problems when it seems pretty clear that people interpret the question differently, not that they can't think through the issues.

(Not my downvote, btw)