Morendil comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (335)
One of the major take-aways I got from actually reading Jaynes was how he is always careful to write probabilities as conditioned on all prior knowledge: P(A|X) where X is our "background knowledge".
This is useful in the present case since we can distinguish X, Beauty's background knowledge about which way a given coin might land, and X', which represents X plus the description of the experimental setup, including the number of awakenings in each case.
That - the difference between X and X' - is the new information that Beauty learns and which might make P(heads|X') different from P(heads|X).