Morendil comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 07 May 2010 02:34PM

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Comment author: Morendil 09 May 2010 03:25:49PM 1 point [-]

One of the major take-aways I got from actually reading Jaynes was how he is always careful to write probabilities as conditioned on all prior knowledge: P(A|X) where X is our "background knowledge".

This is useful in the present case since we can distinguish X, Beauty's background knowledge about which way a given coin might land, and X', which represents X plus the description of the experimental setup, including the number of awakenings in each case.

That - the difference between X and X' - is the new information that Beauty learns and which might make P(heads|X') different from P(heads|X).