timtyler comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong
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It doesn't make sense to assert that probability of Tuesday is 1/4 (in the sense that it'd take a really bad model to give this answer). Monday and Tuesday of the "tails" case shouldn't be distinct elements of the sample space. What happens when you've observed that "it's not Tuesday", and the next day it's Tuesday? Have you encountered an event of zero probability? This is exactly the same reason why the solution of 1/3 can't be backed up by a reasonable model.
In the classical possible worlds model, you've got two worlds for each outcome of the coin flip, with probabilities 1/2 apiece, and so (Tuesday, tails) is the same event as (Monday, tails), weighing probability of 1/2. Thus, for example, probability that we are in the possible world where Monday can be observed, given that Tuesday can be observed, is 1, but it doesn't make sense to ask "What is probability of it being Tuesday?", unless this question is interpreted as "What is probability of us being in the possible world where it's possible to observe Tuesday?", in which case the question "What is the probability of it being Monday, given that it's Tuesday?", interpreted the same way, has "100%" as the answer.
Surely, 1/3 is the correct answer - and is backed up by a perfectly reasonable model..