neq1 comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 07 May 2010 02:34PM

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Comment author: neq1 10 May 2010 12:52:31PM 0 points [-]

"She knew from the start that she is twice as likely to be asked when it is tails. "

The probability that she would be asked is 1, regardless of the outcome of the coin. Her estimate of the chances of her being awakened should have been 1.

Comment author: timtyler 10 May 2010 05:45:56PM 1 point [-]

Yes: her estimate of the chances of her being awakened is indeed 1.