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thomblake comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong
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Really? Someone who's been posting around these parts for years, and your best hypothesis is "doesn't understand Bayesian probability"? How would you rank it compared to "Someone hijacked your Lw account" or "I'm not understanding you" or "You said something that would have made sense except for a fairly improbable typo"?
This seems a reasonable hypothesis specifically because it's Tim Tyler. It would be much less probable for most other old-timers (another salient exception that comes to mind is Phil Goetz, though I don't remember what he understands about probability in particular).