NancyLebovitz comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 07 May 2010 02:34PM

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Comment author: NancyLebovitz 10 May 2010 06:07:32PM 1 point [-]

I'm not sure whether this is legitimate or a joke, but if the question is unclear about whether 1/2 or 1/3 is better, maybe 5/12 is a good answer.

Comment author: thomblake 10 May 2010 06:12:03PM 1 point [-]

I'm also not sure if you're serious, but if you assign a 50% probability to the relevant question being the one with the correct answer of '1/2' and a 50% probability to the relevant question being the one with the correct answer of '1/3' then '5/12' should maximize your payoff over multiple such cases if you're well-calibrated.