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Unknowns comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong
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Well, the question was:
"What is your credence now for the proposition that our coin landed heads?"
No mention of "occasions". Your comment doesn't seem to be addressing that question, but some other ones, which are not mentioned in the problem description.
This explains why you can defend the "wrong" answer: you are not addressing the original question.
I did not claim that the problem statement used the word "occasions".
Beauty should answer whatever probability she would answer if she was well-calibrated. So does a well-calibrated Beauty answer '1/2' or 1/3'? Does Laplace let her into Heaven or not?
By the way, do you happen to remember the name or location of the article in which Eliezer proposed the idea of being graded for your beliefs (by Laplace or whoever), by something like cross-entropy or K-L divergence, such that if you ever said about something true that it had probability 0, you'd be infinitely wrong?
A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation
What Nick said. Laplace is also mentioned jokingly in a different context in An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem.
Well, 1/3. I thought you were supposed to be defending the plausibility of the "1/2" answer here - not asking others which answer is right.