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timtyler comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong
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I did not claim that the problem statement used the word "occasions".
Beauty should answer whatever probability she would answer if she was well-calibrated. So does a well-calibrated Beauty answer '1/2' or 1/3'? Does Laplace let her into Heaven or not?
Well, 1/3. I thought you were supposed to be defending the plausibility of the "1/2" answer here - not asking others which answer is right.