timtyler comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 07 May 2010 02:34PM

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Comment author: timtyler 11 May 2010 05:22:48PM *  0 points [-]

The total number of events (statements by Beauty) adds up to the total number of trials (interviews).

You should not expect the number of statements by beauty on Monday to add up to the total number of interviews alltogether. It adds up to the number of interviews on Monday. This is not very complicated.

Comment author: neq1 11 May 2010 05:31:49PM 0 points [-]

Do you have to make a condescending remark every time you respond? You told me things that I already know, and then said "This is not very complicated." Great, but nothing accomplished.

You are using an estimator that is valid when you have counts from independent trials. Coin flips are independent here, but interviews are not. You need to take that into account.