neq1 comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong
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Well, I have a phd in biostatistics and teach Bayesian data analysis at the University of Pennsylvania, so I either have background in such matters or Penn isn't real careful on who they hire.
The fact that I am very careful about these kinds of problems is what lead me to discover the flaw in the 1/3 argument -- it wasn't obvious to me at first.