Morendil comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 07 May 2010 02:34PM

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Comment author: Morendil 13 May 2010 09:07:39AM 0 points [-]

Sorry, I meant to say I'd urge you to press on with the formalization and calculation in your interpretation of the Delta case.

I'll punt on the wall-clock idea. I'm not planning to spend any time working out the formalization for anything that involves large numbers of values for any given variable - my skills aren't up to doing that confidently, and we seem to have enough to go on with formulations of the problem that only involve smaller sets.

Comment author: AlephNeil 13 May 2010 09:20:51AM 0 points [-]

OK but intuitively it can't make any difference whether SB is woken at a fixed or a random time of day, and it can't make any difference whether there is a clock on the wall.

So the solution to the 'random-waking, clock on wall variation' must be the same as the solution of the original SB problem.

Comment author: Morendil 13 May 2010 01:06:15PM 0 points [-]

See this for a crisp, simple formalization which appears to show where the ambiguity between 1/2 and 1/3 comes from.