timtyler comments on Conditioning on Observers - Less Wrong
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It's not equally likely to be either day. If I am awake, it's more likely that it's Monday, since that always occurs under heads, and will occur on half of tails awakenings.
Heads and tails are equally likely, a priori, yes. It is equally likely that you will be woken up twice as it is that you will be woken up. Yes. That's true. But we are talking about your state of mind on an awakening. It can't be both Monday and Tuesday. So, what should your subjective probability be? Well, I know it's tails and (Monday or Tuesday) with probability 0.5. I know it's heads and Monday with probability 0.5.
That is Beauty's probability of which day it is AFTER considering that she has been woken up.