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Morendil comments on Conditioning on Observers - Less Wrong
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I need more clarification. Sorry. I do think we're getting somewhere...
The experimenters fix 2 unique constants, k1,k2, each in {1,2,..,20}, sedate you, roll a D20 and flip a coin. If the coin comes up tails, they will wake you on days k1 and k2. If the coin comes up heads and the D20 that comes up is in {k1,k2}, they will wake you on day 1.
Do you agree that P(H|W)=2/22 in this case?
I do.