AlephNeil comments on Conditioning on Observers - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Jonathan_Lee 11 May 2010 05:15AM

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Comment author: AlephNeil 13 May 2010 01:31:20PM 3 points [-]

I do like this intuition pump - it gets across how weird the situation is - but here's one thing you may not have realised:

Once the experiment is over, then even based on thirder logic, people ought to cease saying "I'm 90% sure..." and start saying "I'm 50% sure..."

(Because they have forgotten the 'extra information' that led them to give 90% rather than 50% as their probability of cancer.)