thomblake comments on Conditioning on Observers - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Jonathan_Lee 11 May 2010 05:15AM

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Comment author: thomblake 13 May 2010 02:05:52PM 0 points [-]

Then by your logic, you ought to say that your probability of waking in the morning is (1/4)x(0/2) + (1/2)x(6/7) + (1/4)x(12/12) = 3/7 + 1/4 = 19/28, rather than 1/2 if the coins are tossed 'just in time'.

By neq1's previous reasoning, there's 50% chance of waking in the mornings and 50% chance of waking in the evening for any particular week. That is the case whether the coins are tossed in advance or not. The probability of a particular morning awakening would be 1/12.

I'm not sure where you got your (6/7) figure for neq1's calculations.

Comment author: AlephNeil 13 May 2010 02:11:57PM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure where you got your (6/7) figure for neq1's calculations.

neq1 admits that in my original scenario, before I introduced the coin and hibernations, you have a 6/7 probability of waking in the morning. The case where one of the two coins is heads and the other is tails is equivalent to this.