AlephNeil comments on Conditioning on Observers - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Jonathan_Lee 11 May 2010 05:15AM

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Comment author: AlephNeil 13 May 2010 03:11:58PM 0 points [-]

In my use of the words 'every week' I am implicitly--I take that back, I am explicitly supposing that every week the procedure is repeated.

So we would obtain an indefinitely long sequence of awakenings, of which 1/7 are in the evening and 6/7 in the morning.

Comment author: thomblake 13 May 2010 04:19:40PM *  0 points [-]

For any such finite sequence of awakenings, there would (when viewed from the outside) be a 50% chance for a particular week of waking up in an evening, and a 50% chance for a particular week of waking up in the mornings - you can then assign a uniform distribution for particular weeks, getting a 1/6 probability of a particular morning in a tails week. If you pick an awakening randomly on that distribution, you have a 1/2 probability it's an evening and a 1/12 probability it's any particular morning (ETA: out of the week).