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MichaelBishop comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong
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I'm interested in hearing others responses to these questions:
As for this one:
As you know, that depends on what we want to use the model for. It ignores all sorts of structure in the real world, but that could end up being a feature rather than a bug.
I want to use it to try to get a grip on what conditions must be satisfied in order that people can expect to improve their accuracy on the problems discussed on LessWrong by participating in LessWrong; and whether accuracy can go to 1, or approaches a limit.
That reminds me; I need to add a sentence about the confidence effect.