PhilGoetz comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong
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I want to use it to try to get a grip on what conditions must be satisfied in order that people can expect to improve their accuracy on the problems discussed on LessWrong by participating in LessWrong; and whether accuracy can go to 1, or approaches a limit.
That reminds me; I need to add a sentence about the confidence effect.