Jack comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong

11 Post author: PhilGoetz 13 May 2010 05:55PM

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Comment author: Jack 14 May 2010 05:02:31AM 1 point [-]

How is this a constructive comment? You're just stating your position again. We all already know your position. I can just as easily say:

Bayesians should not answer 1/3. Nobody should answer 1/3: that's the wrong answer.

If your interpretation of the word "credence" leads you to answer 1/3, you are fighting with the rest of the community over the definition of the concept of subjective probability.

If the entire scientific establishment is using subjective probability in a different way, by all means, show us! But don't keep asserting it like it has been established. That isn't productive.

Comment author: timtyler 14 May 2010 09:52:27AM *  0 points [-]

The point of the comment was to express disapproval of the idea that scientists had multiple different conceptions of subjective probability - and that the Bayesian approach gave a different answer to other ones - and to highlight exactly where I differed from garethrees - mostly for his benefit.