LucasSloan comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong

11 Post author: PhilGoetz 13 May 2010 05:55PM

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Comment author: LucasSloan 14 May 2010 05:07:03AM 0 points [-]

you are fighting with the rest of the community over the definition of the concept of subjective probability.

There is at least a minority that believes the term "subjective probability" isn't meaningful.

Comment author: timtyler 14 May 2010 08:33:41AM *  0 points [-]

I only scanned that - and I don't immediately see the relationship to your comment - but it seems as though it would be a large digression of dubious relevance.

Comment author: Jack 14 May 2010 05:24:00AM *  0 points [-]

Or whether or not it is meaningful, it is certainly fraught with all the associated confusion of personal identity, the arrow of time and information. I don't think anyone can claim to understand it well enough to assert that those of us who see the Sleeping Beauty problem entailing a different payoff scheme are obviously and demonstrably wrong. We know how to answer related decision problems but no one here has established the right or the best way to assign the payoff scheme to credence. And people seem too frustrated by the fact that anyone could disagree with them to actually consider the pros and cons of using other payoff schemes.