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timtyler comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong
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It seems to say that p(heads|woken) = 0.25. A whole new answer :-(
That's in the three-day variant; it also has a sheet with the original.
It has three sheets. The respective conclusions are: p(heads|woken) = 0.25, p(heads|woken) = 0.33 and p(heads|woken) = 0.50. One wonders what you are trying to say.
That 1/3 is correct in the original, that 1/2 comes from allocating zero probability mass to "not woken up", and the three-day version shows why that is wrong.