Morendil comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong

11 Post author: PhilGoetz 13 May 2010 05:55PM

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Comment author: Morendil 14 May 2010 09:56:23AM 0 points [-]

That 1/3 is correct in the original, that 1/2 comes from allocating zero probability mass to "not woken up", and the three-day version shows why that is wrong.