The Sleeping Beauty Challenge

Maybe I'm naive, but I actually think that we can come close to consensus on the solution to this problem. This is a community of high IQ, aspiring rationalists.

I think it would be a good exercise to use what we know about rationality, evidence, biases, etc. and work this out.

I propose the following:

1. I will write up my best arguments in favor of the 1/2 solution. I'll keep it shorter than my original post.

2. Someone representing the thirders will write up their best arguments in favor of the 1/3 solution

3. Before reading the others' arguments, we will assume that they are right, and that reading it will only confirm our beliefs (this is hard to do, but I find that this approach can be helpful)

4. We cannot respond for at least 24 hours. (this will give us time to digest the arguments, without just reacting immediately)

5. We will then check to see if there is agreement

6. If we still disagree, we can have some discussion (say, via email) to see if progress can be made

7. We will post our original two arguments and conclusion here (maybe in a new post)?

What do you think?

I tried to set this up in such a way to reduce some of the known biases that prevent agreement. Am I missing something?

Possible pitfall: if we come to an agreement, people who disagree with our conclusion might say it's because one of us was a poor representative of their viewpoint. However, I think we'd still move a step towards consensus.

What say you?