Dagon comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong

11 Post author: PhilGoetz 13 May 2010 05:55PM

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Comment author: thomblake 13 May 2010 09:25:11PM 2 points [-]

Drawing Two Aces might count.

A bunch of people got the wrong answer, and it was presumed to be against your naive intuitions if you don't know how to do the math. But any doubters understood the right answer once it was pointed out.

Comment author: Dagon 14 May 2010 02:50:41PM 0 points [-]

I don't think that qualified. There was no revelation, just an agreement on process and on result. That was not a question analogous to PhilGoetz's model, where some agents had more accurate estimates, and you use the result to determine how accurate they might be on other topics.