Comment on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model

Fri, 14 May 2010 16:47:27 GMT

I tried to explain it here: http://lesswrong.com/lw/28u/conditioning_on_observers/1zy8

Basically, the 2 wakings on tails should be thought of as one waking. You're just counting the same thing twice. When you include counts of variables that have a correlation of 1 in your denominator, it's not clear what you are getting back. The thirders are using a relative frequency that doesn't converge to a probability

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