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cupholder comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong
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Replying again since I've now looked at the spreadsheet.
Using my intuition (which says the answer is 1/2), I would expect P(Heads, Tuesday, Not woken) + P(Tails, Tuesday, Not woken) > 0, since I know it's possible for Beauty to not be woken on Tuesday. But the 'halfer "variant"' sheet says P(H, T, N) + P(T, T, N) = 0 + 0 = 0, so that sheet's way of getting 1/2 must differ from how my intuition works.
(ETA - Unless I'm misunderstanding the spreadsheet, which is always possible.)
Yeah, that "Halfer variant" was my best attempt at making sense of the 1/2 answer, but it's not very convincing even to me anymore.