cupholder comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong
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The poll on the subject:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/28u/conditioning_on_observers/1ztb
...currently has 75% saying 1/3 and 25% saying 1/2. (12:4)
Collective intelligence in action?
Udpate 2010-06-06 - the raw vote figures are now 14:3.
It's 13:5 to make up for a case of manipulation and to include my vote.