timtyler comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (153)
She has LESS knowledge than she had on Sunday in one critical area - because now she doesn't know what day of the week it is. She may not have learned much - but she has definitely forgotten something - and forgetting things changes your estimates of their liklihood just as much as learning about them does.
That's true.
I'm not as sure about this. It's not clear to me how it changes the likelihoods if I sketch Beauty's situation at time 1 and time 2 as
as opposed to just
(Edit to clarify - the 2nd pair of statements is meant to represent roughly how I was thinking about the setup when writing my earlier comment. That is, it's evident that I didn't account for Beauty forgetting what day of the week it is in the way timtyler expected, but at the same time I don't believe that made any material difference.)