cupholder comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong
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Comments (153)
That's true.
I'm not as sure about this. It's not clear to me how it changes the likelihoods if I sketch Beauty's situation at time 1 and time 2 as
as opposed to just
(Edit to clarify - the 2nd pair of statements is meant to represent roughly how I was thinking about the setup when writing my earlier comment. That is, it's evident that I didn't account for Beauty forgetting what day of the week it is in the way timtyler expected, but at the same time I don't believe that made any material difference.)