In discussions on Overcoming Bias during the last 3 years, before and after LW spun off of Overcoming Bias, most people voicing opinions backed by actual reasoning voiced opinions that assigned a higher probability to a hard take-off given that a self-improving AGI is created than Robin.

In the spirit of impartial search for the truth, I will note that rwallace on LW advocates not worrying about unFriendly AI, but I think he has invested years becoming an AGI researcher. Katja Grace is another who thinks hard take-off very unlikely and has actual reasoning on her blog to that effect. She has not invested any time becoming an AGI researcher and has lived for a time at Benton Street as a Visiting Fellow and in the Washington, D.C., area where she traveled with the express purpose of learning from Robin Hanson.

All the full-time employees and volunteers of SIAI that I know of assign much more probability to hard take-off (given AGI) than Robin does. At a workshop following last year's Singularity Summit, every attendee expressed the wish that brain emulation would arrive before AGI. I get the definite impression that those wishes stems mainly from fears of hard takeoff, and not from optimism about brain emulation per se. In the spirit of impartial search for truth, I note that SIAI employees and volunteers probably chose the attendee list of this workshop.