Why do you think expert systems cannot handle anything cross-disciplinary? I even say that expert systems can generate new ideas, by more or less the same process > that humans do. An expert system only needs an understanding of manufacturing, physics, and chemistry to design better computer chips, for instance.
Expert systems generally need very narrow problem domains to function. I'm not sure how you would expect an expert system to have an understanding of three very broad topics. Moreover, I don't know exactly how humans come up with new ideas (sometimes when people ask me, I tell them that I bang my head against the wall. That's not quite true but it does reflect that I only understand at a very gross level how I construct new ideas. I'm bright but not very bright, and I can see that much smarter people have the same trouble). So how you are convinced that expert systems could construct new ideas is not at all clear to me.
To be sure, there have been some limited work with computer systems coming up with new, interesting ideas. There's been some limited success with computers in my own field. See for example Simon Colton's work. There's also been similar work in geometry and group theory. But none of these systems were expert systems as that term is normally used. Moreover, none of the ideas they've come up with have that impressive. The only exception I'm aware of that is the proof of the Robbins conjecture. So even in narrow areas we've had very little success using specialized AIs. Are you using a more general definition of expert system than is standard?
The reason why NO general AI is better than friendly (general) AI is very simple. IF general AI is an existential threat, than no organization claiming to put humans first could justify being pro-AGI (friendly or not), since no possible benefit* can justify the risk of destroying humanity
Multiple problems with that claim. First, the existential threat may be low. There's some tiny risk for example that the LHC will destroy the Earth in some very fun way. There's also some risk that work with genetic engineering might give fanatics the skill to make a humanity destroying pathogen. And there's a chance that nanotech might turn everything into purple with green stripes goo (this is much more likely than gray goo of course). There's even some risk that proving the wrong theorem might summon Lovecraftian horrors. All events have some degree of risk. Moreover, general AI might actually help mitigate some serious threats, such as making it easier to track and deal with rogue asteroids or other catastrophic threats.
Also, even if one accepted the general outline of your argument, one would conclude that that's a reason why organizations shouldn't try to make general friendly AI. It isn't a reason that actually having no AI is better than having no friendly AI.
"First, the existential threat [of AGI] may be low."
Let me trace back the argument tree for a second. I originally asked for a defense of the claim that "SIAI is tackling the world's most important task." Michael Porter responded, "The real question is, do you even believe that unfriendly AI is a threat to the human race, and if so, is there anyone else tackling the problem in even a semi-competent way?" So NOW in this argument tree, we're assuming that unfriendly AI IS an existential threat, enough that preventing it is th...
Now is the very last minute to apply for a Summer 2010 Visiting Fellowship. If you’ve been interested in SIAI for a while, but haven’t quite managed to make contact -- or if you’re just looking for a good way to spend a week or more of your summer -- drop us a line. See what an SIAI summer might do for you and the world.
(SIAI’s Visiting Fellow program brings volunteers to SIAI for anywhere from a week to three months, to learn, teach, and collaborate. Flights and room and board are covered. We’ve been rolling since June of 2009, with good success.)
Apply because:
Apply especially if:
(You don’t need all of the above; some is fine.)
Don’t be intimidated -- SIAI contains most of the smartest people I’ve ever met, but we’re also a very open community. Err on the side of sending in an application; then, at least we’ll know each other. (Applications for fall and beyond are also welcome; we’re taking Fellows on a rolling basis.)
If you’d like a better idea of what SIAI is, and what we’re aimed at, check out:
1. SIAI's Brief Introduction;
2. The Challenge projects;
3. Our 2009 accomplishments;
4. Videos from past Singularity Summits (the 2010 Summit will happen during this summer’s program, Aug 14-15 in SF; visiting Fellows will assist);
5. Comments from our last Call for Visiting Fellows; and/or
6. Bios of the 2009 Summer Fellows.
Or just drop me a line. Our application process is informal -- just send me an email at anna at singinst dot org with: (1) a resume/c.v. or similar information; and (2) a few sentences on why you’re applying. And we’ll figure out where to go from there.
Looking forward to hearing from you.