The historical lack of runaway-AI events means there's no data to which a model might be compared; countless fictional examples are worse than useless.

That's what everyone says until some AI decides that its values motivate it acting like a stereotypical evil AI. It first kills off the people on a space mission, and then sets off a nuclear war, sending out humanoid robots to kill off everyone but a few people. The remaining people are kept loyal with a promise of cake. The cake is real, I promise.