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JoshuaZ comments on Be a Visiting Fellow at the Singularity Institute - Less Wrong
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The historical lack of runaway-AI events means there's no data to which a model might be compared; countless fictional examples are worse than useless.
An AI might, say, take over an isolated military compound, brainwash the staff, and be legitimately confident in it's ability to hold off conventional forces (armored vehicles and so on) for long enough to build an exosolar colony ship, but then be destroyed when it underestimates some Russian general's willingness to use nuclear force in a hostage situation.
That's what everyone says until some AI decides that its values motivate it acting like a stereotypical evil AI. It first kills off the people on a space mission, and then sets off a nuclear war, sending out humanoid robots to kill off everyone but a few people. The remaining people are kept loyal with a promise of cake. The cake is real, I promise.