EDIT: I've realized that some misinterpretation of my arguments has been due to disagreements in terminology. I define "expert systems" as systems designed to address a specific class of well-defined problems, capable of logical reasoning and probabilistic inference given a set of "axiom-like" rules, and updating their knowledge database with specific kinds of information.
AGI I define specifically as AI which has human or extra-human level capabilities, or the potential to reach those capabilities.
Now my response to the above:
"Expert AI systems are already used in hospitals, and will surely be used more and more as the technology progresses. There isn't a single point where AI is suddenly better than humans at all aspects of a field. Current AIs are already better than doctors in some areas, but worse in many others. As the range of AI expertise increases doctors will shift more towards managerial roles, understanding the strengths and weakness of the myriad expert systems, refereeing between them and knowing when to overrule them."
I agree with all of these.
"By the time true AGI arrives narrow AI will probably be pervasive enough that the line between the two will be too fuzzy to allow for a naive ban on AGI."
To me it seems the greatest enabler of AI catastrophe is ignorance. But by the time narrow AI becomes pervasive, it's also likely that people will possess much more of the technical understanding needed to comprehend the threat that AGI possesses.
"Moreover, I highly doubt people are going to vote to save jobs (especially jobs of the affluent) at the expense of human life."
You are being too idealistic here.
But by the time narrow AI becomes pervasive, it's also likely that people will possess much more of the technical understanding needed to comprehend the threat that AGI possesses.
Or perhaps it's the contrary: pervasive narrow AI fosters an undue sense of security. People become comfortable via familiarity, whether it's justified or not. This morning I was peering down a 50 foot cliff, half way up, suspended by nothing but a half inch wide rope. No fear, no hesitation, perfect familiarity. Luckily, due to knowledge of numerous deaths of past climbers I c...
Now is the very last minute to apply for a Summer 2010 Visiting Fellowship. If you’ve been interested in SIAI for a while, but haven’t quite managed to make contact -- or if you’re just looking for a good way to spend a week or more of your summer -- drop us a line. See what an SIAI summer might do for you and the world.
(SIAI’s Visiting Fellow program brings volunteers to SIAI for anywhere from a week to three months, to learn, teach, and collaborate. Flights and room and board are covered. We’ve been rolling since June of 2009, with good success.)
Apply because:
Apply especially if:
(You don’t need all of the above; some is fine.)
Don’t be intimidated -- SIAI contains most of the smartest people I’ve ever met, but we’re also a very open community. Err on the side of sending in an application; then, at least we’ll know each other. (Applications for fall and beyond are also welcome; we’re taking Fellows on a rolling basis.)
If you’d like a better idea of what SIAI is, and what we’re aimed at, check out:
1. SIAI's Brief Introduction;
2. The Challenge projects;
3. Our 2009 accomplishments;
4. Videos from past Singularity Summits (the 2010 Summit will happen during this summer’s program, Aug 14-15 in SF; visiting Fellows will assist);
5. Comments from our last Call for Visiting Fellows; and/or
6. Bios of the 2009 Summer Fellows.
Or just drop me a line. Our application process is informal -- just send me an email at anna at singinst dot org with: (1) a resume/c.v. or similar information; and (2) a few sentences on why you’re applying. And we’ll figure out where to go from there.
Looking forward to hearing from you.