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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Taking the awkwardness out of a Prenup - A Game Theoretic solution - Less Wrong
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The interesting figure should be the fraction of Americans who divorced, among those who "felt they found the one", not the fraction of Americans who "felt they found the one" among those who divorced.
Yeah that's what I meant but wrote the sentence clumsily. Have corrected it now.
But can you keep the 50% figure while changing what it denotes? Where does the figure come from?
The 50% american divorce rate is mostly in line with published statistics. I don't think it is unrealistic to assume that an overwhelming majority of folks getting married, feel that they are getting married to "the one", so I am just keeping the 50% figure. In any case getting this number to be very accurate is not important to the argument, so I didn't care to get the best possible estimate of this possible.
Then say "a fair portion of", not "50%". Saying "50%" gives an illusion of actual data.
I'm not so sure.
I wrote "probably 50%". I guess it could be reasonably inferred that this is an extrapolation using my best guess coupled with actual numbers.