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orthonormal comments on Link: Strong Inference - Less Wrong
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The point is, that's not a case where we've actually found the way ahead, and shown that the mathematical speculation was a dead end. It's therefore relatively weak evidence.
And given the number of times that further formalizing a field has paid off in the physical sciences, this doesn't at all convince me that "overmathematizing" is a general problem.
In the case of quantum mechanics, the additional formalizing did certainly pay off. But the formalizing was done after the messy first version of the theory made several amazingly accurate predictions.