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dclayh comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread - Less Wrong
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Ch. 32. I don't know what Eliezer will have Blaise do, but if I were in that position I'd flip a coin between Harry and Draco, get rewarded by the winner and counterfactually mug the loser. (Hoping, of course, that that Draco wins, since Harry is clearly more likely to pay off a counterfactual mugger.)
ETA: That is, of course, assuming that Blaise isn't working for Dumbledore (which his chapter-ending line would seem to point to).
Assume that Draco and Harry both value victory at $1000. Now if you demand $800 from the winner, the loser "would have" gained only $200 in the counterfactual case, so he will pay you $200 at most. So you could have just demanded $1000 minus epsilon from the winner. We could probably prove a theorem that says counterfactual mugging can't help you extract more of the surplus economic value that you create.
Excellent point! This is what I get for posting in haste.
ETA: However you can extract more than $1000 if you assume that at least one of Harry and Draco would rather the other of them win than Hermione. No counterfactuals needed.
Judging by the Author's Notes, my guess is that the final result is a three-way tie caused by Blaise self-terminating in the name of Sunshine.
You don't even need to flip the coin; just tell Harry you did. As Harry isn't actually Omega, this will work just as well (assuming you don't act differently)
Request reason for downvote; Off-topic? Incorrect (e.g. not utility maximising)? Unclear? Sorry for whatever it was.
That you "don't act differently" doesn't protect you from an inference from your motive.
But Harry's inference will be the same regardless, as the evidence he gets doesn't differ between,
If you are the sort of person who would do that Harry will assume that you lie if presented with that evidence unless you also successfully fool Harry as to what sort of person you are (and presumably he will default to not trusting you if unsure). Otherwise you are just wasting your time.