khafra comments on Diseased thinking: dissolving questions about disease - Less Wrong

236 Post author: Yvain 30 May 2010 09:16PM

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Comment author: khafra 01 June 2010 12:38:43AM 0 points [-]

Sexual offender have a high rate of recidivism. Some states keep them locked up indefinitely, past the end of their sentences. Any of the various state laws which allow for involuntary commitment as an inpatient like Florida's Baker Act also match your description.

Comment author: savageorange 07 June 2010 01:46:54AM *  3 points [-]

Correction: Sexual offenders have an unusually low rate of recidivism (about 7% IIRC); There is certainly a strong false perception that they have a high rate of recidivism, though.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 07 June 2010 02:11:19AM *  4 points [-]

Correct, the recidivism rate for sexual offenses is generally lower than for the general criminal population in the United States, although the rate calculated varies a lot based on the metric and type of offense. See here . Quoting from that page:

"Marshall and Barbaree (1990) found in their review of studies that the recidivism rate for specific types of offenders varied:

* Incest offenders ranged between 4 and 10 percent.
* Rapists ranged between 7 and 35 percent.
* Child molesters with female victims ranged between 10 and 29 percent.
* Child molesters with male victims ranged between 13 and 40 percent.
* Exhibitionists ranged between 41 and 71 percent."

This is in contrast to base rates for reoffense in the US for general crimes which ranges from around 40% to 60% depending on the metric see here.

This isn't the only example where recidivism rates for specific types of people have been poorly described. There's been a large deal made by certain political groups that about 20% of people released from Gitmo went on to fight the US.

Note also that in Western Europe recividism for the general criminal population is lower. I believe that the recidivism rate for sexual offenses does not seem to correspondingly drop, but I don't have a citation for that.

Edit: Last claim may be wrong, this article suggests that at least in the UK recidivism rates are close to those in the US for the general criminal population.

Comment author: cupholder 07 June 2010 02:20:45AM 0 points [-]

Note also that in Western Europe recividism for the general criminal population is lower.

Edit: Last claim may be wrong, this article suggests that at least in the UK recidivism rates are close to those in the US for the general criminal population.

You might still be mostly correct about Western Europe - the UK could be an outlier relative to the rest of Western Europe.

Comment author: Alicorn 07 June 2010 02:00:54AM 1 point [-]

Citation, please?

Comment author: JoshuaZ 07 June 2010 02:22:32AM *  2 points [-]

See my reply to Savageorange where I gave the statistics and citations here. Savage is correct although the phenomenon isn't as strong as Savage makes it out to be.