hegemonicon comments on Open Thread: June 2010 - Less Wrong
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In A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation, Eliezer writes,
So I have a question. Is this not an endorsement of frequentism? I don't think I understand fully, but isn't counting the instances of the event exactly frequentist methodology? How could this be Bayesian?
Morendil's explanation is, as far as I can tell, correct. What's much more interesting is that examples given in terms of frequencies is required to engage our normal intuitions about probability. There's at least some research that indicates that when questions of estimation and probability are given in terms of frequencies (ie: asking 'how many problems do you think you got correct?' instead of 'what is your confidence for this answer?'), many biases disappear completely.