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RobinZ comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong
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I don't get it really. I mean, I get the method, but not the formula. Is this useful for anything though?
Also, a simpler method of explaining the Monty Hall problem is to think of it if there were more doors. Lets say there were a million (thats alot ["a lot" grammar nazis] of goats.) You pick one and the host elliminates every other door except one. The probability you picked the right door is one in a million, but he had to make sure that the door he left unopened was the one that had the car in it, unless you picked the one with a car in it, which is a one in a million chance.
There's a significant population of people - disproportionately represented here - who consider Bayesian reasoning to be theoretically superior to the ad hoc methods habitually used. An introductory essay on the subject that many people here read and agreed with A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation.