Vive-ut-Vivas comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong
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It might help to read the sequences, or just read Jaynes. In particular, one of the central ideas of the LW approach to rationality is that when one encounters new evidence one should update one's belief structure based on this new evidence and your estimates using Bayes' theorem. Roughly speaking, this is in contrast to what is sometimes described as "traditional rationalism" which doesn't emphasize updating on each piece of evidence but rather on updating after one has a lot of clearly relevant evidence.
Edit: Recommendation of Map-Territory sequence seems incorrect. Which sequence is the one to recommend here?
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