Sniffnoy comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong
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Firstly, priors are important; if something has a low prior probability, it's not generally going to get to a high probability quickly. Secondly, not all evidence has the same strength. Remember in particular that the strength of evidence is measured by the likelihood ratio. If you see something that could likely be caused by hallucinations, that isn't necessarily very strong evidence for it; but hallucinations are not totally arbitrary, IINM. Still, if you witness objects spontaneously floating off the ground, even if you know this is an unlikely hallucination, the prior for some sort of gravity failure will be so low that the posterior will probably still be very low. Not that those are the only two alternatives, of course.