jimrandomh comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong

126 Post author: komponisto 03 June 2010 04:40AM

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Comment author: Houshalter 04 June 2010 03:41:46PM -1 points [-]

See the reply I made to AlephNeil. Also, this still doesn't change my scenario. If theres a way to test a hypothesis, I see no reason the bayesian method ever would, even if it seems like common sense to look before you leap.

Anyone know why I can only post comments every 8 minutes? Is the bandwidth really that bad?

Comment author: jimrandomh 04 June 2010 03:56:05PM *  3 points [-]

Bayesianism is only a predictor; it gets you from prior probabilities plus evidence to posterior probabilities. You can use it to evaluate the likelihood of statements about the outcomes of actions, but it will only ever give you probabilities, not normative statements about what you should or shouldn't do, or what you should or shouldn't test. To answer those questions, you need to add a decision theory, which lets you reason from a utility function plus a predictor to a strategy, and a utility function, which takes a description of an outcome and assigns a score indicating how much you like it.

The rate-limit on posting isn't because of bandwidth, it's to defend against spammers who might otherwise try to use scripts to post on every thread at once. I believe it goes away with karma, but I don't know what the threshold is.